Specter's Switch

Arlen Specter's defection takes me back to the days of the McCain campaign, observing how journalists decided what was mavericky and what was political opportunism. In the case of Specter, it would have been quite difficult for him to win the rematch of his close 2004 primary fight against right-winger Pat Toomey, given that as many as 200,000 presumably moderate PA Republicans switched affiliation to vote in the Dem Presidential Primary, and what's left of the GOP base was less than thrilled with Specter's stimulus vote. So the party switch seems to have been a move of political necessity.

Similarly, it can be tough to find the ideological continuity in some of Specter's votes and positions -- flip-flopping on EFCA, some rather extreme judicial appointment endorsements, and previous suggestions of making party-flipping verboten -- further boosting the claim that he's the "unprincipled hack" Jon Chait and other bloggers say he is.

However, the Republican Party has marched steadily to the right in the past 8 years (obligatory sentence for Martians), causing many conservatives to question how comfortable they feel remaining in the GOP. And in a two-party system, it's unclear what recourse there is for a Northeastern Republican.

At the very least this will create even more political theater for journalists, as Specter could end up being the deciding vote on a few bills, one way or the other. And there may be opportunities for interesting dynamics on items like health care and climate change where a coalition of 60 will be formed with votes from Specter and one or two of the Senators from Maine, but without Democrats like Nelson or Bayh.